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Stock Comparison · Structural lead, mixed market

McDonald's vs Union Pacific: Which Stock Looks Stronger in 2026?

Union Pacific holds the cleaner structural position, with profitability as the main driver and stability adding further support. McDonald's still has the edge on stability, which keeps the comparison from looking entirely one-sided. On the market side, Union Pacific is in better shape — its trend is intact while McDonald's's trend has broken down. That puts structure and market broadly in agreement — Union Pacific's lead looks more confirmed than conflicted.

The comparison is based on similar long-term financial trajectories, not sector labels. Both peer scores are relative to the S&P 500 universe, making them directly comparable.

Updated 2026-08-16

The result is anchored in profitability, but growth also reinforces the same direction. Union Pacific Corporation leads by 10 points on the overall comparison score.

Trajectory Similarity
0.67
Moderately similar
Peer-set rank: #9
within McDonald's Corporation's functional peer set

This comparison is anchored in long-term financial trajectory similarity within the selected peer universe.

The pair shares a valid long-term profile match, but the trajectories are not especially close.

The match is driven mainly by margin consistency and recent revenue growth.

Similarity drivers
margin consistencyrecent revenue growth
How to read the score
0.85–1.00 · Very similar0.70–0.84 · Similar0.55–0.69 · Moderately similarbelow 0.55 · Loose match
Peer-Relative Score
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
59
Peer-Score
Signal qualitylow
Peer basis: S&P 500
vs
UNP
Union Pacific Corporation
69
Peer-Score
Signal qualitylow
Peer basis: S&P 500

Scores reflect position relative to comparable companies with similar long-term financial trajectories.

The largest gaps do not all point in the same direction.

Dimension spread: MCD vs UNP Profitability 31 78 Stability 91 59 Valuation 75 68 Growth 45 68 MCD UNP
Gap Ranking
#1 Profitability +47
#2 Stability +32
#3 Growth +23
#4 Valuation +7
Price Setup

Left means cheaper relative valuation. Higher means stronger structure.

Price setup map for MCD and UNP Stronger + cheaper Stronger + richer Weaker + cheaper Weaker + richer MCDUNP Relative valuation Structural strength

Neither company combines the stronger profile with the cheaper valuation.

Valuation position uses peer-relative PE percentile (idx_pct_pe) where available.

Entry today — historical context

Where MCD and UNP each sit in their own 5-year price and valuation history.

BASED ON 5-YEAR HISTORY MCD Neutral · below norm 0th 50th 100th 43 pct gap UNP Elevated · above norm 0th 50th 100th 56th 99th
Today MCD sits in the upper-middle of its own 5-year history (56th percentile), while UNP sits higher in its own history (99th). Within each stock's own 5-year context, MCD is at a historically more favourable entry position than UNP. This reflects entry timing, not which company is structurally stronger — peer-relative analysis is a separate question addressed above.

Describes historical entry positioning only. Descriptive — not investment advice.

Relative Position vs Comparable Companies
Profitability
On profitability, Union Pacific Corporation ranks near the top of the group; McDonald's Corporation sits in the weaker half.
Stability
On stability, the same pattern holds: both are strong, but McDonald's Corporation still leads clearly.
Profitability — Dominant Gap
MCD
31
UNP
78
Gap+47in favour of UNP

The clearest distance comes from a stronger profitability profile.

What keeps the gap from being one-sided

Stability still leans toward McDonald's Corporation, so the lead is real without reading as one-way.

What this means for the comparison

The profitability edge is decisive, even though current pricing and stability still lean somewhat toward McDonald's Corporation.

Explore full peer positioning in AssetNext

Break down the MCD vs UNP comparison across all dimensions with the full interactive tool.

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Other comparisons with conflicting dimension signals

Explore how MCD and UNP each compare against other companies in their peer groups.

Rule-based, descriptive analysis only. Derived from peer percentile dimensions. Not investment advice. Peer groups are determined algorithmically based on structural similarity — not by sector classification alone.

How AssetNext Peer Scores Work

AssetNext scores reflect each company's structural position within its functional peer group — not a ranking against all stocks simultaneously. Peers are identified by similarity across eight financial dimensions, including revenue growth trajectory, margin structure, capital intensity, and earnings stability. A score of 75 means the company ranks in the top quartile within its own peer group, not the entire market.

Four dimension scores drive the overall peer score: Growth (revenue trajectory and expansion dynamics), Quality (margin structure and capital efficiency), Valuation (peer-relative pricing on standard multiples), and Stability (earnings consistency and financial predictability). Each dimension is scored 0–100 relative to the peer group, then combined into an overall peer score using equal weighting.

Because scores are peer-relative, the same company can have slightly different scores in different index universes. On comparison pages, both companies are shown within their shared peer universe wherever possible — so the scores are directly comparable. The peer basis is stated on each score card.

Scores are recalculated periodically as underlying financial data is updated. All analysis is descriptive and rule-based — AssetNext describes structural realities and never issues buy, sell or hold recommendations.