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The Home Depot vs Ulta Beauty: Which Stock Looks Stronger in 2026?

Ulta Beauty holds the cleaner structural position, with growth as the main driver and valuation adding further support. The Home Depot still has the edge on stability, which keeps the comparison from looking entirely one-sided. Both sides have seen trend damage — neither carries a clear market edge right now. With both trends damaged, the structural comparison carries most of the weight here.

The comparison is based on similar long-term financial trajectories, not sector labels. Both peer scores are relative to the S&P 500 universe, making them directly comparable.

Updated 2026-07-05

The lead is spread across growth and valuation, rather than sitting in one isolated gap. The overall score gap is 13 points in favour of Ulta Beauty, Inc..

Trajectory Similarity
0.80
Similar
Peer-set rank: #7
within The Home Depot, Inc.'s functional peer set

These two companies are linked by measured long-term financial trajectory similarity within the selected peer universe.

The pair sits on a clearly comparable long-term path, though it is not a near-twin match.

The match is driven mainly by capital structure and margin consistency.

Similarity drivers
capital structuremargin consistency
How to read the score
0.85–1.00 · Very similar0.70–0.84 · Similar0.55–0.69 · Moderately similarbelow 0.55 · Loose match
Peer-Relative Score
HD
The Home Depot, Inc.
54
Peer-Score
Signal qualitylow
Peer basis: S&P 500
vs
ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc.
67
Peer-Score
Signal qualitylow
Peer basis: S&P 500

Scores reflect position relative to comparable companies with similar long-term financial trajectories.

Score differences across key dimensions.

Dimension spread: HD vs ULTA Profitability 54 69 Stability 60 44 Valuation 64 84 Growth 35 60 HD ULTA
Gap Ranking
#1 Growth +25
#2 Valuation +20
#3 Stability +16
#4 Profitability +15
Price Setup

Left means cheaper relative valuation. Higher means stronger structure.

Price setup map for HD and ULTA Stronger + cheaper Stronger + richer Weaker + cheaper Weaker + richer HDULTA Relative valuation Structural strength

Ulta Beauty, Inc. looks stronger both structurally and on relative valuation.

Valuation position uses peer-relative PE percentile (idx_pct_pe) where available.

Entry today — historical context

Where HD and ULTA each sit in their own 5-year price and valuation history.

BASED ON 5-YEAR HISTORY HD Elevated · above norm 0th 50th 100th 14 pct gap ULTA Neutral · near norm 0th 50th 100th 77th 62nd
HD (77th percentile) and ULTA (62nd percentile) sit at comparable positions within their own 5-year histories. This reflects entry timing, not which company is structurally stronger.

Describes historical entry positioning only. Descriptive — not investment advice.

Relative Position vs Comparable Companies
Growth
Ulta Beauty, Inc. sits in the stronger part of the group on growth, while The Home Depot, Inc. is closer to mid-pack.
Valuation
Both rank well on valuation, but Ulta Beauty, Inc. still holds a clear edge.
Growth — Dominant Gap
HD
35
ULTA
60
Gap+25in favour of ULTA

The current lead is backed by a stronger multi-year growth trajectory.

What keeps the gap from being one-sided

A meaningful counterforce remains in stability, which keeps the comparison from looking completely one-sided.

What this means for the comparison

Growth is the clearest driver of the lead, with valuation adding further support — though stability still provides a real counterweight.

Explore full peer positioning in AssetNext

Break down the HD vs ULTA comparison across all dimensions with the full interactive tool.

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Similar growth-and-valuation comparisons

Explore how HD and ULTA each compare against other companies in their peer groups.

Rule-based, descriptive analysis only. Derived from peer percentile dimensions. Not investment advice. Peer groups are determined algorithmically based on structural similarity — not by sector classification alone.

How AssetNext Peer Scores Work

AssetNext scores reflect each company's structural position within its functional peer group — not a ranking against all stocks simultaneously. Peers are identified by similarity across eight financial dimensions, including revenue growth trajectory, margin structure, capital intensity, and earnings stability. A score of 75 means the company ranks in the top quartile within its own peer group, not the entire market.

Four dimension scores drive the overall peer score: Growth (revenue trajectory and expansion dynamics), Quality (margin structure and capital efficiency), Valuation (peer-relative pricing on standard multiples), and Stability (earnings consistency and financial predictability). Each dimension is scored 0–100 relative to the peer group, then combined into an overall peer score using equal weighting.

Because scores are peer-relative, the same company can have slightly different scores in different index universes. On comparison pages, both companies are shown within their shared peer universe wherever possible — so the scores are directly comparable. The peer basis is stated on each score card.

Scores are recalculated periodically as underlying financial data is updated. All analysis is descriptive and rule-based — AssetNext describes structural realities and never issues buy, sell or hold recommendations.