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Packaging Corporation of America vs Ulta Beauty: Which Stock Looks Stronger in 2026?

Ulta Beauty holds the cleaner structural position, with valuation as the main driver and profitability adding further support. Packaging of America still has the edge on stability, which keeps the comparison from looking entirely one-sided. The market setup is currently leaning toward Packaging of America, which does not confirm the structural lead. That leaves a split case: the structural lead stays with Ulta Beauty, but the market is not currently confirming it.

The comparison is based on similar long-term financial trajectories, not sector labels. Both peer scores are relative to the S&P 500 universe, making them directly comparable.

Updated 2026-05-17

This is not just a one-metric split: both valuation and profitability materially support the lead. Ulta Beauty, Inc. leads by 14 points on the overall comparison score.

Trajectory Similarity
0.75
Similar
Peer-set rank: #11
within Packaging Corporation of America's functional peer set

This pair is matched through long-term financial trajectory similarity within the selected peer universe.

This level of similarity signals a strong structural match, even though some dimensions still separate the two companies.

The match is driven mainly by margin consistency and revenue stability.

Similarity drivers
margin consistencyrevenue stability
How to read the score
0.85–1.00 · Very similar0.70–0.84 · Similar0.55–0.69 · Moderately similarbelow 0.55 · Loose match
Peer-Relative Score
PKG
Packaging Corporation of America
46
Peer-Score
Signal qualitylow
Peer basis: S&P 500
vs
ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc.
60
Peer-Score
Signal qualitylow
Peer basis: S&P 500

Scores reflect position relative to comparable companies with similar long-term financial trajectories.

Score differences across key dimensions.

Dimension spread: PKG vs ULTA Profitability 30 54 Stability 59 36 Valuation 58 83 Growth 38 56 PKG ULTA
Gap Ranking
#1 Valuation +25
#2 Profitability +24
#3 Stability +23
#4 Growth +18
Price Setup

Left means cheaper relative valuation. Higher means stronger structure.

Price setup map for PKG and ULTA Stronger + cheaper Stronger + richer Weaker + cheaper Weaker + richer PKGULTA Relative valuation Structural strength

Ulta Beauty, Inc. and Packaging Corporation of America look relatively close on structure, but the price setup still leans toward Ulta Beauty, Inc..

Valuation position uses peer-relative PE percentile (idx_pct_pe) where available.

Entry today — historical context

Where PKG and ULTA each sit in their own 5-year price and valuation history.

BASED ON 5-YEAR HISTORY PKG Elevated · above norm 0th 50th 100th 13 pct gap ULTA Elevated · above norm 0th 50th 100th 87th 75th
PKG (87th percentile) and ULTA (75th percentile) sit at comparable positions within their own 5-year histories. This reflects entry timing, not which company is structurally stronger.

Describes historical entry positioning only. Descriptive — not investment advice.

Relative Position vs Comparable Companies
Valuation
Both rank well on valuation, but Ulta Beauty, Inc. still holds a clear edge.
Profitability
Ulta Beauty, Inc. sits in the stronger part of the group on profitability, while Packaging Corporation of America is closer to mid-pack.
Valuation — Dominant Gap
PKG
58
ULTA
83
Gap+25in favour of ULTA

The multiple-based pricing edge comes from a trailing P/E that is 6.5 turns lower.

What keeps the gap from being one-sided

Stability still tilts materially toward Packaging Corporation of America, which stops the result from looking dominant across the whole profile.

What this means for the comparison

Valuation is the clearest driver of the lead, with profitability adding further support — though stability still provides a real counterweight.

Explore full peer positioning in AssetNext

Break down the PKG vs ULTA comparison across all dimensions with the full interactive tool.

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Other comparisons with conflicting dimension signals

Explore how PKG and ULTA each compare against other companies in their peer groups.

Rule-based, descriptive analysis only. Derived from peer percentile dimensions. Not investment advice. Peer groups are determined algorithmically based on structural similarity — not by sector classification alone.

How AssetNext Peer Scores Work

AssetNext scores reflect each company's structural position within its functional peer group — not a ranking against all stocks simultaneously. Peers are identified by similarity across eight financial dimensions, including revenue growth trajectory, margin structure, capital intensity, and earnings stability. A score of 75 means the company ranks in the top quartile within its own peer group, not the entire market.

Four dimension scores drive the overall peer score: Growth (revenue trajectory and expansion dynamics), Quality (margin structure and capital efficiency), Valuation (peer-relative pricing on standard multiples), and Stability (earnings consistency and financial predictability). Each dimension is scored 0–100 relative to the peer group, then combined into an overall peer score using equal weighting.

Because scores are peer-relative, the same company can have slightly different scores in different index universes. On comparison pages, both companies are shown within their shared peer universe wherever possible — so the scores are directly comparable. The peer basis is stated on each score card.

Scores are recalculated periodically as underlying financial data is updated. All analysis is descriptive and rule-based — AssetNext describes structural realities and never issues buy, sell or hold recommendations.