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Packaging Corporation of America vs Ulta Beauty: Which Stock Looks Stronger in 2026?

Ulta Beauty holds the cleaner structural position, with the lead spread across valuation and profitability. Packaging of America still has the edge on stability, which keeps the comparison from looking entirely one-sided. In the market, Packaging of America carries the stronger setup — intact trend against Ulta Beauty's broken trend. That leaves a split case: the structural lead stays with Ulta Beauty, but the market is not currently confirming it.

The comparison is based on similar long-term financial trajectories, not sector labels. Both peer scores are relative to the S&P 500 universe, making them directly comparable.

Updated 2026-08-16

The lead is spread across valuation and profitability, rather than sitting in one isolated gap. Ulta Beauty, Inc. leads by 18 points on the overall comparison score.

Trajectory Similarity
0.74
Similar
Peer-set rank: #11
within Packaging Corporation of America's functional peer set

This pair is matched through long-term financial trajectory similarity within the selected peer universe.

This level of similarity signals a strong structural match, even though some dimensions still separate the two companies.

The match is driven mainly by margin consistency and revenue stability.

Similarity drivers
margin consistencyrevenue stability
How to read the score
0.85–1.00 · Very similar0.70–0.84 · Similar0.55–0.69 · Moderately similarbelow 0.55 · Loose match
Peer-Relative Score
PKG
Packaging Corporation of America
44
Peer-Score
Signal qualitylow
Peer basis: S&P 500
vs
ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc.
62
Peer-Score
Signal qualitylow
Peer basis: S&P 500

Scores reflect position relative to comparable companies with similar long-term financial trajectories.

Score differences across key dimensions.

Dimension spread: PKG vs ULTA Profitability 28 59 Stability 58 40 Valuation 50 84 Growth 44 54 PKG ULTA
Gap Ranking
#1 Valuation +34
#2 Profitability +31
#3 Stability +18
#4 Growth +10
Price Setup

Left means cheaper relative valuation. Higher means stronger structure.

Price setup map for PKG and ULTA Stronger + cheaper Stronger + richer Weaker + cheaper Weaker + richer PKGULTA Relative valuation Structural strength

The two profiles are relatively close, but the price setup still leans toward Ulta Beauty, Inc..

Valuation position uses peer-relative PE percentile (idx_pct_pe) where available.

Entry today — historical context

Where PKG and ULTA each sit in their own 5-year price and valuation history.

BASED ON 5-YEAR HISTORY PKG Elevated · above norm 0th 50th 100th 23 pct gap ULTA Elevated · above norm 0th 50th 100th 99th 76th
Today ULTA sits in the upper portion of its own 5-year history (76th percentile), while PKG sits higher in its own history (99th). Within each stock's own 5-year context, ULTA is at a historically more favourable entry position than PKG. This reflects entry timing, not which company is structurally stronger — peer-relative analysis is a separate question addressed above.

Describes historical entry positioning only. Descriptive — not investment advice.

Relative Position vs Comparable Companies
Valuation
Both rank well on valuation, but Ulta Beauty, Inc. still holds a clear edge.
Profitability
Ulta Beauty, Inc. sits in the stronger part of the group on profitability, while Packaging Corporation of America is closer to mid-pack.
Valuation — Dominant Gap
PKG
50
ULTA
84
Gap+34in favour of ULTA

The multiple-based pricing edge comes from a forward P/E that is 3.7 turns lower.

What keeps the gap from being one-sided

Stability still leans toward Packaging Corporation of America, so the lead is real without reading as one-way.

What this means for the comparison

The lead is built on both valuation and profitability — though stability still provides a counterweight.

Explore full peer positioning in AssetNext

Break down the PKG vs ULTA comparison across all dimensions with the full interactive tool.

Explore full breakdown →
Similar valuation-and-profitability comparisons

Explore how PKG and ULTA each compare against other companies in their peer groups.

Rule-based, descriptive analysis only. Derived from peer percentile dimensions. Not investment advice. Peer groups are determined algorithmically based on structural similarity — not by sector classification alone.

How AssetNext Peer Scores Work

AssetNext scores reflect each company's structural position within its functional peer group — not a ranking against all stocks simultaneously. Peers are identified by similarity across eight financial dimensions, including revenue growth trajectory, margin structure, capital intensity, and earnings stability. A score of 75 means the company ranks in the top quartile within its own peer group, not the entire market.

Four dimension scores drive the overall peer score: Growth (revenue trajectory and expansion dynamics), Quality (margin structure and capital efficiency), Valuation (peer-relative pricing on standard multiples), and Stability (earnings consistency and financial predictability). Each dimension is scored 0–100 relative to the peer group, then combined into an overall peer score using equal weighting.

Because scores are peer-relative, the same company can have slightly different scores in different index universes. On comparison pages, both companies are shown within their shared peer universe wherever possible — so the scores are directly comparable. The peer basis is stated on each score card.

Scores are recalculated periodically as underlying financial data is updated. All analysis is descriptive and rule-based — AssetNext describes structural realities and never issues buy, sell or hold recommendations.