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Stock Comparison · Industry comparison · Discount Stores

Costco Wholesale vs Dollar Tree: Which Stock Looks Stronger in 2026?

The structural profiles are close, with Dollar Tree carrying a narrow edge on valuation. Costco Wholesale still leads on profitability and stability, which keeps the comparison from looking entirely one-sided. The market setup is currently leaning toward Costco Wholesale, which does not confirm the structural lead. That leaves a split case: the structural lead stays with Dollar Tree, but the market is not currently confirming it.

The comparison is based on similar long-term financial trajectories, not sector labels. Both peer scores are relative to the S&P 500 universe, making them directly comparable.

Updated 2026-05-17

The comparison is mainly decided in valuation, with the rest of the profile carrying less weight.

INDUSTRY COMPARISON

Both operate in: Discount Stores

This comparison is based on industry proximity, not on functional trajectory similarity. COST and DLTR share the same industry classification.

For a similarity-based comparison, see how Costco Wholesale and Dollar Tree each position within their functional peer groups in AssetNext.

Peer-Relative Score
COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation
63
Peer-Score
Signal qualitylow
Peer basis: S&P 500
vs
DLTR
Dollar Tree, Inc.
68
Peer-Score
Signal qualitylow
Peer basis: S&P 500

Scores reflect position relative to comparable companies with similar long-term financial trajectories.

Pricing shapes this comparison more than a broad operating gap.

Dimension spread: COST vs DLTR Profitability 81 67 Stability 61 25 Valuation 31 85 Growth 86 84 COST DLTR
Gap Ranking
#1 Valuation +54
#2 Stability +36
#3 Profitability +14
#4 Growth +2
Price Setup

Left means cheaper relative valuation. Higher means stronger structure.

Price setup map for COST and DLTR Stronger + cheaper Stronger + richer Weaker + cheaper Weaker + richer COSTDLTR Relative valuation Structural strength

Costco Wholesale Corporation looks stronger, but the price setup still looks more supportive for Dollar Tree, Inc..

Valuation position uses peer-relative PE percentile (idx_pct_pe) where available.

Entry today — historical context

Where COST and DLTR each sit in their own 5-year price and valuation history.

BASED ON 5-YEAR HISTORY COST Elevated · above norm 0th 50th 100th 82 pct gap DLTR Lower · below norm 0th 50th 100th 99th 16th
Today DLTR sits in the lower portion of its own 5-year history (16th percentile), while COST sits higher in its own history (99th). Within each stock's own 5-year context, DLTR is at a historically more favourable entry position than COST. This reflects entry timing, not which company is structurally stronger — peer-relative analysis is a separate question addressed above.

Describes historical entry positioning only. Descriptive — not investment advice.

Relative Position vs Comparable Companies
Valuation
On valuation, Dollar Tree, Inc. ranks near the top of the group; Costco Wholesale Corporation sits in the weaker half.
Stability
On stability, Costco Wholesale Corporation is positioned higher in the group, while Dollar Tree, Inc. is closer to the middle.
Valuation — Dominant Gap
COST
31
DLTR
85
Gap+54in favour of DLTR

The multiple-based pricing edge comes from a forward P/E that is 34 turns lower.

What keeps the gap from being one-sided

Stability still leans toward Costco Wholesale Corporation, so the lead is real without reading as one-way.

What this means for the comparison

Valuation gives Dollar Tree, Inc. the clearer edge, even though stability and the price setup keep the overall picture from looking clean.

Explore full peer positioning in AssetNext

Break down the COST vs DLTR comparison across all dimensions with the full interactive tool.

Explore full breakdown →
Other comparisons with conflicting dimension signals

Explore how COST and DLTR each compare against other companies in their peer groups.

Rule-based, descriptive analysis only. Derived from peer percentile dimensions. Not investment advice. Peer groups are determined algorithmically based on structural similarity — not by sector classification alone.

How AssetNext Peer Scores Work

AssetNext scores reflect each company's structural position within its functional peer group — not a ranking against all stocks simultaneously. Peers are identified by similarity across eight financial dimensions, including revenue growth trajectory, margin structure, capital intensity, and earnings stability. A score of 75 means the company ranks in the top quartile within its own peer group, not the entire market.

Four dimension scores drive the overall peer score: Growth (revenue trajectory and expansion dynamics), Quality (margin structure and capital efficiency), Valuation (peer-relative pricing on standard multiples), and Stability (earnings consistency and financial predictability). Each dimension is scored 0–100 relative to the peer group, then combined into an overall peer score using equal weighting.

Because scores are peer-relative, the same company can have slightly different scores in different index universes. On comparison pages, both companies are shown within their shared peer universe wherever possible — so the scores are directly comparable. The peer basis is stated on each score card.

Scores are recalculated periodically as underlying financial data is updated. All analysis is descriptive and rule-based — AssetNext describes structural realities and never issues buy, sell or hold recommendations.