ASML Holding N.V. ranks below the peer group median, with a broadly weak profile — no strong structural dimension across the main areas. Price action is lagging the structural profile — current market behavior is not yet confirming the structural position.
Peer-relative scores, weakest to strongest
ASML Holding N.V. is a leading supplier of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specializing in photolithography systems essential for chip production. The company serves global chipmakers and is a critical player in the semiconductor supply chain.
Exceptional profitability defines the ASML story—return on invested capital stands at 62.6% and operating margins reach 36%, placing the company at the top of its sector for capital efficiency and earnings quality. However, this operational strength coincides with low market confidence: a premium valuation is under pressure due to pronounced stability risks.
The internal signals are clear. ASML's stability score sits at just 14/100, among the weakest in its peer group, reflecting ongoing investor caution despite the company’s fundamentals. The maximum drawdown of -47.9% shows how quickly sentiment can reverse, even as headline results remain robust. Valuation remains elevated, with a forward P/E of 30.6x compared to a peer median of 18.9x, confirming that the market continues to price in high expectations. Management’s 2026 guidance for €36–40bn in net sales and 51–53% gross margin is a positive signal, but volatility and risk perception keep the premium exposed.
Recent external context complicates the picture rather than resolving it. Strong Q1 2026 results—€8.8bn in revenue and €2.8bn in net income, both up year-over-year—support the execution story. However, export restrictions to China introduce regulatory uncertainty that limits ASML’s addressable market and increase risk not equally shared by all peers. This regulatory overhang means the premium has not yet found a stable floor.
Compared to peers, ASML’s premium is more severe than many, but not exclusive. The risk profile is partly idiosyncratic: while all advanced semiconductor firms face cyclical swings, the regulatory constraints around China are specific to ASML’s product mix and market exposure. This keeps ASML at the sharper end of premium valuations, with risk factors that are not fully sector-wide.
A more defensible premium would require market confidence to stabilize and volatility to normalize. Supporting improvement would include material reduction in regulatory uncertainty and unambiguous delivery on 2026 guidance. Until then, ASML carries a valuation not yet fully anchored.
Break down ASML.AS's position across all dimensions with the full interactive tool.
This analysis is rule-based and descriptive. Peer-relative scores are derived from functional peer group comparisons using publicly available financial data. Scores reflect structural positioning only and do not constitute investment advice, a buy or sell recommendation, or a forecast of future performance. AssetNext peer scores are recalculated periodically as new data becomes available.
AssetNext scores reflect each company's structural position within its functional peer group — not a ranking against all stocks simultaneously. Peers are identified by similarity across eight financial dimensions, including revenue growth trajectory, margin structure, capital intensity, and earnings stability. A score of 75 means the company ranks in the top quartile within its own peer group, not the entire market.
Four dimension scores drive the overall peer score: Growth (revenue trajectory and expansion dynamics), Quality (margin structure and capital efficiency), Valuation (peer-relative pricing on standard multiples), and Stability (earnings consistency and financial predictability). Each dimension is scored 0–100 relative to the peer group, then combined into an overall peer score using equal weighting.
Because scores are peer-relative, the same company can have slightly different scores in different index universes. On comparison pages, both companies are shown within their shared peer universe wherever possible — so the scores are directly comparable. The peer basis is stated on each score card.
Scores are recalculated periodically as underlying financial data is updated. All analysis is descriptive and rule-based — AssetNext describes structural realities and never issues buy, sell or hold recommendations.